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FSUWs in the USA: the numbers
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Posted by: ham

NUMBERS?
http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/a...ies/mobappa.htm

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<< Because the agency response rate to Professor Scholes' survey was extremely low, and few agencies appear to keep good statistics, the tentative nature of the estimate of 4,000 to 6,000 marriages per year must be emphasized. However, knowledgeable INS staff believe that this estimate is a reasonable range, and that it represents a logical increase over the estimates made earlier, given what is known about the growth of the mail-order bride industry. At this level, mail-order marriages account for 2.7 percent to 4.1 percent of all immigration involving female spouses. In the broader context, 4,000 such marriages yearly would represent only 0.4 percent of all immigration to the United States in 1996.
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In FY 1994, the last year for which detailed data were maintained, INS reviewed 96,033 applications for removal of conditional status and removed the conditions on 90,243, or 94 percent. This means that 94 percent of the cases were judged to be valid marriages. Most of the cases denied were for failure to pursue the application to remove conditions. Only 717 of the 5,790 denied or closed cases (12 percent) were denied for cause. Of the cases denied for cause, 266 (37 percent) were foreign-born wives of U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents.
Based on a sample of these 266 women (see Appendix B), INS researchers estimate that a minimum of 4 percent to a maximum of 9 percent of their marriages were arranged through the international matchmaking industry. INS researchers believe that the lower bound estimate of 4 percent is the most probable, based on the assumption that cases that could not be examined or classified were distributed in the same way as those whose files were examined and classified.
INS researchers then examined the sampled case files for documented evidence of fraud. Based on this review, 1 percent of the 266 conditional cases denied for cause were estimated to have been both arranged through the mail-order industry and to have involved fraudulent intent. Cases where a mail-order marriage deteriorated and the spouses traded allegations of fraud were also seen, but these allegations were not supported by evidence in the files. At a rate of 1 percent, then, this study did not demonstrate a significant role played by the matchmaking industry in marriage fraud.

From: http://www.immigration.gov/graphics...ies/mobrept.htm
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if we take into account what the study suggests, and suppose FSU represents about 1/3 of the total (most MOBs being asian, philipinas etc ), then we have 1/3 of the "4,000 to 6,000" women, that is between 1333 and 2000 or about 2% of the new US citizens...
That is, NEGLIGIBLE NUMBERS.
This applies as well to the "control freak" or "Hannibal Lechter" kind of "husband" some women claim to have been hooked by: no evidence of such cases ever (quotes one source in the INS studies ) to about ONE PERCENT (claims another source).
We need to point out that the "Hannibal-the-cannibal Lechter" kind of portrait heavily conflicts with the "social misfit"/"loser" theory, which usually comes along in such cases.
A "social misfit" or "loser" is usually a good-to-nothing "nerd" afflicted by various "issues", not a murderous sociopath.
This is not going to change even if one chooses to ARBITRARILY increase the number by 50 or 100% (= max 4000 women for the FSU ).

Beware the study tells us NOTHING about the EDUCATION of the ladies, that is whether (just to start from) they have the required education to COMPETE FOR A JOB SUCH AS ONES SOME MEN LIKE TO WAVE IN FRONT OF LADIES (high caliber ones, EG saying the physician, the engineer etc will be instantly allowed to upgrade once in the west, which may prove accurate for the upper 0,...1%. What about the others?).

If we suppose 2/3 (or 75%) do, then we have at max 75% of 2000, that is we get 1500 ELIGIBLE CANDIDATES.
But there's a lot of difference between an eligible candidate & an employed person...
blahblah

In the end, numbers suggest i am not mistaken suggesting success may be measured by the dozens, not by the thousands...and even if we took the whole 2000 people in, that'd just be 2000 people, not otherwise.

We can compound this with the well-known fact ( see http://www.immigration.gov/graphics...udies/index.htm ) that only about 3-4% of mail-order keyboard Romeo's ever visits the FSU and CONSEQUENTLY, only about 1 to 3% of FSUWs aspiring to marry a WM will one day succeed, and we have our idea.

http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/repsstudies/index.htm
this is where the materials are now.

Posted by: ham

Quote:

Impact on U.S. Marriages

According to data supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau, there were 2,395,000 marriages in the U.S. in the 12 months ending June, 1997 (and 1,154,000 divorces in the same period). The 4,000 to 6,000 marriages involving international services represent, then, a tiny portion (.021 percent) of the women who marry U.S. men.

from
http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/r...ies/Mobappa.htm

Quote:

Quote:
The INS Service Center at St. Albans is one of four Service Centers nationwide, and this sample covered only one month, so the findings cannot be considered representative of all fiancée petitions. However, to the extent that it is, approximately 5.5 percent (41/741) of all fiancée petitions resulted from mail-order introductions. If all fiancée petitions are equally likely to be approved, that percentage would have resulted in the entry of 286 of the 5,200 women who became legal permanent residents (LPRs) in 1996 after entering as fiancées. If this estimate of 286 is applied to the estimate of 4,000 total mail-order marriages in 1996, the fiancée visa route accounted for about 7 percent of them. These are believed to be upper-bound estimates, because the denial rate for petitions based on mail-order introductions is expected to be higher than that for persons who met in other ways. In many of these cases the couple has spent minimal time together before the petition is filed.

from http://uscis.gov/graphics/aboutus/r...ies/Mobappb.htm

Quote:

Instead, INS researchers
reviewed all self-petitioning spousal abuse cases in the active caseload early in FY
Page 14
INTERNATIONAL MATCHMAKING ORGANIZATIONS:
1998 (described in Appendix B). The number of these petitions is continuing to grow.
Of nearly 400 cases reviewed, most of which had already been approved, 2 cases, or
0.5 percent of the total, involved mail-order matches. Both cases involved women from
the former Soviet Union.

pp.14-15 of the full report.

Now the problem for them was to determine how many (among foreign brides of US citizens from other countries ) were actually MOBs.
I can easily jump at census pages & determine every FSU woman married to a US man is a MOB: not true ( that's why the Congress wanted a report drafted ).

So, even if these figures above are outdated ( and they are ), that 0,21% of US immigration impact of total MOBs cannot be higher than 0,5 or 0,7, right?
Then among them you not only have the FSU, but South America, Philippines etc etc.
Even if FSU-MOBs are 50% of that, how many are they?
0,5%:2? 0,7%:2?

Even the INS reports aren't exactly peer reviewed & bulletproof (except for US census or INS raw figures ) because i wouldn't call the philipino center for abused women, cherry blossom marriage agency or other sources so...as much as i wouldn't the KKK or Louis Farrakhan on race issues.
Is then the "shelter for abused women" a credible source?
I wonder who can we expect to find there, if not some self-loathing bulldyke playing lord Marx head games.

As you can see, numbers i reported are official & not out of my a$$.
Outdated?
Yes...every study in matters of immigration is bound to be outdated in a matter of months.
Then i am waiting for other, equally official & equally non ambiguous figures.
Was that from some women hating nazi?
No, quite the opposite: a pot smoking liberal Greenwich villager with his retinue of hindu & latino scholars.