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80 percent of marriages in Russia end up in divorce
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Posted by: Khashyar

"80 percent of marriages in Russia end up in divorce"
pravda.ru
06/25/2004

More and more Russians who got married, come back to the registry office to divorce.
The current ratio of marriages to divorces in Russia is 1000:800. Less number of children are born: there were 36 million children in Russia in 1989, currently we have only 26.3 million children.

The number of families with no children is increasing. Families are becoming smaller - 65 percent of parents have only one child, 28 percent - two children, only 7 percent have three and more kids.

According to sociologists, after the divorce the woman with a kid (or with no kids) has little chance of getting married again. There is no man to get marry to: mortality rate of the men of working age is extremely high. The number of women in their 30s exceeds the number of men significantly.

700,000 of Russian children have no parents to care about them, one third of these children ended up in orphanages. More than 50,000 children escape from home every year.

The West also has many trends of the Russian family. People marry at older age, many couples do not get married, many people prefer having several marriages in the course of their lives, the birth of the first child is postponed for future, the number of kids in the family is reducing - both the West and Russia have all this.

However, different things cause family collapse in Russia: poverty, lack of social guarantees, terrible level of health care, alcoholism, problems with housing.

According to public opinion poll, if the family has decent income and one of the parents of the kids gets sick, they end up in poverty soon, and nothing can draw them out of poverty after this.

The recent survey of Levada-Center demonstrated that everybody in Russia, even wealthy people, are scared to become poor. The second child in the family indicates not only the family stability but the person"s confidence about stable future. The majority of Russians have not this confidence so far.

Posted by: mistermopar

This is very interesting,80% end in divorce.
You would wonder why they even bother with these odds.
But I guess everyone hopes they are going to be in the 20% that stays together.

How true is it that the number of women in their 30's exceeds the number of men.
When I am looking on sites,there all ways seams to be lots of girls in their 20's but not as many in their 30's.

If this is all true,maybe I just might have a chance to meet some lucky lady.

Randy

Posted by: Khashyar

Thanks for your thoughts, Randy...

I also wonder what Russian sociologists believe is the REASON that 80% of current Russian marriages end in divorce. We know what Russian women are saying, but I wonder what scientific data suggests.

I don't know the exact figures regarding the availability of women in their thirties.

However, just from my travels and exposure to Lena's communication with Russian women, I know that there are many Russian women who are looking for healthy and stable marriages. It just takes being patient, lots of communication, and practical common sense.

Khashyar

Posted by: Jutman

Hi

From what i understand, its to easy to get a divorce and the men can easily get away with not paying child support.

I hope they have hit the rock-buttom and soon we start see more postive sociology data from Russia and other FSU states.

Posted by: ConnerVT

Quote:

Originally posted by mistermopar
This is very interesting,80% end in divorce...
But I guess everyone hopes they are going to be in the 20% that stays together.

If 80% of marriages end in divorce,
Then the other 20% must end in death.

Posted by: parasionok

Conner, exellent

20% of russian marriages last... till the day one of the partners die... Anyone care to give the statistics how many of them actually die unnatural death?

Posted by: FlashingEyes

I had some comments on this topic a while back on one of those massive threads (1500+ posts) that ends up being about every subject under the sun...this post is about the only one worth reading on this subject but every thread is interesting in its own way.

http://www.russianmeetingplace.com/...18775#post18775

Posted by: ConnerVT

This is one of those statistics that put an image of one thing in your mind, but really take much more thought to make sense of. Assuming that the number is accurate, somewhere. But let's assume it is, for a moment.

The image that's created in my mind, when first reading 80% of marriages end in divorce is that 4 out of 5 people will end up alone and die lonely. And long in the past, divorce usually meant a fate as this.

But the days of "until death do us part" are far behind us. It was easier to obtain this goal, when life expectancy was 30-40 years. But now, with it approaching 80 years of age, marrying your high school sweetheart means golden wedding anniversary + a few years. How many people do you know who have accomplished that?

Is it wrong to assume that after 15-20 years of marriage that people may change enough in their life, that what was a good partnership between two people may no longer be so?

Then, of course, there is those people who skew the statistics, by marrying and divorcing several times. If you have three couples in a good marriage, and another man marries and then gets divorced three times, 50% of marriages end in divorce. Truth is, one loser = six people in a solid marriage.

I don't know if I have a point to make or not, other than sometimes you need to look deeper into what a statistic really means.

Posted by: Jill

WOW!

I'm very surprised--I had always heard that the divorce rate was just over 50%. Wonder how we can verify this info.?

Posted by: AkMike

Jill, Pravda would'nt distort it. Would they?

Posted by: Jutman

Hi

I don't have a specific article any more, but I have read that the Divorce rate in Moscow is actually over 100. Or more precisly there is more divorces than marriages.
What the number would be, if we look it at it overall I don't know, but asually there is more to the statistics than just the number.

Posted by: Jill

It seems very few sources agree. Here is one from GMTV Today:

Quote:

Britain has the fourth highest divorce rate in the world, according to recent statistics, with two out of five marriages ending in divorce.

The US divorce rate is 4.95 per 1,000 of the total population, followed by Puerto Rico with 4.47, and Russia with 3.36, while Britain has a rate of 3.08

International Monetary Fund, UN Statistical Summary, & Census Bureau also lists it as 0.336 per 1,000 Population (again making it third after the US and Puerto Rico). And the percentage of divorces to marriages is listed at 65%, compared with 49% in the US. These are the numbers that I kept finding everywhere.

So once again, it is hard to know what is more accurate and how these statistics were taken.

Posted by: Jill

Quote:

There is no man to get marry to: mortality rate of the men of working age is extremely high. The number of women in their 30s exceeds the number of men significantly.

This is a confusing statement. Are they trying to insinuate that men often die in their 30s? I think the mortality rate for men is Russia is around 60, so what does this have to do with women in their 30s?

Here's what the CIA World Fact Book has to say (unfortunately, I don't think they break it down very well):

Quote:

Population:
143,782,338 (July 2004 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 15% (male 11,064,109; female 10,518,595)
15-64 years: 71.3% (male 49,534,076; female 52,958,107)
65 years and over: 13.7% (male 6,177,580; female 13,529,871) (2004 est.)

Median age:
total: 37.9 years
male: 34.7 years
female: 40.7 years (2004 est.)

Population growth rate:
-0.45% (2004 est.)

Birth rate:
9.63 births/1,000 population (2004 est.)

Death rate:
15.17 deaths/1,000 population (2004 est.)

Net migration rate:
1.02 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2004 est.)

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.06 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.05 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 0.94 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.46 male(s)/female
total population: 0.87 male(s)/female (2004 est.)

Infant mortality rate:
total: 16.96 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 19.58 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 14.18 deaths/1,000 live births (2004 est.)

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 66.39 years
male: 59.91 years
female: 73.27 years (2004 est.)

Total fertility rate:
1.26 children born/woman (2004 est.)

Posted by: ConnerVT

So what does it REALLY mean, if anything?

Posted by: FlashingEyes

Jill,

Statistics on divorce rate should be based on a per marriage basis, not a per person basis. Your source above is a comparison of divorces based on number of total people, so a country with fewer marriages, percentage-wise, and more children would have a skewed result making it seem better than it is, because of course all those never-married people and children wouldn't have been divorced. The United States, with a great health care system, older population, and less children per family than most other countries, plus the highest marriage rate according to your source, gets a negatively skewed result under this manipulation of the statistics. There is the additional problem (earlier noted by Conner) that in a country like Russia it is common for one person to be divorced multiple times and as your source presents the statistics, per person, these multiple divorces only get counted once, but on a per marriage basis all the divorces get counted. If your source showed divorces per marriage then the rate would be 80% in Russia and about 45% in the United States.

Posted by: Pawel_PL.USA

Conner, what all this REALLY means is that a Slavic nation in the East is dying out and the Russian gvt ought to get its act together and attempt to do something about it.

Posted by: povlhp

There are lies and there are statistics.

OK, if we last year had 1000 marriages, and 800 divorces, does that mean that 80% og mariages ends in divorce ?

NO. The divorce happens some years after the marriage. And if only half of the relationships ends in a marriage now, as opposed to 8 years ago (assuming 8 years average marriage time for those divorcing - In Denmark 53% of all married people in 2003 had been married 8 years or longer)

We also had a divorce/marriage rate of 15763:35041 = 45% divorce rate. It is 40% around Aarhus where I live, and 37% in Copenhagen, the capital - mostly becauase marriages are up in the big cities. The resulting divorces are out in the future.

BTW: 5.8% of danish mariages are done abroad !!!

Posted by: povlhp

More danish statistics:

Comparing 1993 to 2003:

Marigages per 1000 non-married men up 10% (down 7-8% for 25-29 y.o, up 18-20% 30-39 y.o.).

For women: up 10% - Down 3% to 25-29 y.o, up 15% for 35-39 y.o. - up 23% for 30-34 y.o.

Since marriages grows fast, it will outrun divorces (which must lag some years behind). So real divorce numers are not available.

Most common divorce age, for both men and women: 40-44 years.

Most common mariage duration: 3-4 years.

Posted by: Jutman

- WhATS THAT. ANOTHER DANE

Hej Povl

Og velkommen til !!!

Posted by: Jill

Hi FlashingEyes,

I am VERY FAR from being a statistitian, so I don't claim to really know what's behind all of these numbers. But if what you're talking about is the percent of divorces to marriages, the number I found for Russia was 65% and for the US 49%. Isn't that it? Again, correct me if I'm wrong--admittedly, I've never been at numbers

The thing I want to know is--where do these numbers come from? Pravda doesn't seem to give a source. Anyone know the answer? I would guess Gosstat....

Posted by: FlashingEyes

Jill,

I think if you will go back and follow the links I have provided (in my prior post) you will find all your questions immediately above answered.

Flash

Posted by: RobOhioGuy

Quote:

Originally posted by FlashingEyes
Jill,

I think if you will go back and follow the links I have provided (in my prior post) you will find all your questions immediately above answered.

Flash

Data along with your conclusions make sense to me.... Considering that the leading reason for divorce is financial problems its no wonder that the divorce rate is higher in the FSU.

The article also pointed out the prevailing comment I receieved when I asked why they were seeking a forgein husband when they told me "because I cant find a good man here."

quote from the pravda article:
According to sociologists, after the divorce the woman with a kid (or with no kids) has little chance of getting married again. There is no man to get marry to: mortality rate of the men of working age is extremely high. The number of women in their 30s exceeds the number of men significantly.

Posted by: Jill

Although, I am rather sketpical of the results of the 2002 census, this is what I found:

Quote:

�� 34 �� (� 1989 �.- 36 ��.). �� 3 ��. �� .

�� : �� 1000 �� 16 �� 210 �� - �� (� 1989 �. - 161); 572 - �� (� 1989 �. - 653); 114 - �� (� 1989 �. - 110); 94 - �� (� 1989 �. - 72).

�� , ��, �� , �� (� 2002 �. - �� 65 ��. ��, � 1989 �. - �� 28 ��. ��).

This does not give the percent, however. But how does this figure in? It certainly seems that marriage has gone down and divorce has gone up since the last census--rather predicatable as the last census was in 1989. But married people far outnumber divorced people (although this doesn't account for people who are in a second--or third--marriage).

But, FlashingEyes, I still don't know where the 80% comes from. I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I just want to know where it was found, becuase others sources dispute it (as noted in my above post that lists 65%). And, if I'm reading it correctly, your own link (to Divorcemag) also lists 65%. The only link you provided that I saw with the 80% figure is the SAME pravda article that Khashyar posted and which lists no source for the information. Again, do correct me if I'm reading things wrong, as I really am trying to make sense of the numbers.

By the way, gks.ru is a great site for all kinds of information

Posted by: Jill

Quote:

There is no man to get marry to: mortality rate of the men of working age is extremely high. The number of women in their 30s exceeds the number of men significantly.

This is not true according to census information.

See: http://www.gks.ru/PEREPIS/graph1.htm

And: http://www.gks.ru/PEREPIS/report.htm

Although, a trend can be observed starting at age 33, this gap only widens significantly at around 65, in other words near the average male life expectancy. The graph link above is pretty clear in illustrating that.

Posted by: RobOhioGuy

Quote:

Originally posted by Jill
This is not true according to census information.

See: http://www.gks.ru/PEREPIS/graph1.htm

And: http://www.gks.ru/PEREPIS/report.htm

Although, a trend can be observed starting at age 33, this gap only widens significantly at around 65, in other words near the average male life expectancy. The graph link above is pretty clear in illustrating that.

Pravda is wrong and you are right.... wow.... who would have thunk it?

Posted by: Jill

Quote:

Pravda is wrong and you are right.... wow.... who would have thunk it?

I never said I was right. I said that what pravda wrote is different from what was found in the census. Pravda does not state a source for their information other than "sociologists." I am simply curious about the reason for the disparity. I do not know which information is more accurate, pravda or the census--perhaps there is a demographer around who can clear this up?

Posted by: FlashingEyes

Jill,

I'd be happy to answer your questions, once you've taken my suggestion and gone through the links I provided in my prior posts to get to the various articles I cited.

Two of them do an excellent job of describing the methodology behind the 80% figure, and similar figures.

One of them notes that the 80% figure is the 2004 figure, whereas your 65% figure is from an earlier year, and after reading the articles you will understand why figures can change from year to year.

I am not averse to helping you, only request that you go ahead and read what has already been provided first.

Flash

Posted by: Jill

FlashingEyes, admittedly I only opened the two links (divorcemag and pravda) that you listed as containing information pertaining to Russia. The others seemed to be more about US statistics.

I will take a look at the others.

I do not mean to sound argumentative--I really am interested in learning the answer to this.

Posted by: Jill

I'm sorry, FlashingEyes, I've read all of the links that you posted and I am still unable to verify 80%. Other than the pravda article, where did you find this number? Perhaps I missed it?

Quote:

One of them notes that the 80% figure is the 2004 figure, whereas your 65% figure is from an earlier year

Yes, I didn't find this. Which link was it?

you know, this discussion is probably beginning to bore people--perhaps you can simply PM me the correct link?

Posted by: rk288

Another statistic that I heard...very dissapointing to me...very disheartening...but I keep the faith...

90% of divorces in the United States are among Christian families. Who are we on this planet my friends? Where is the wake up call? Isn't 9/11 or the recent tragedy in Russia or the world wars enough? What will bring us together? What will it take to make us really care about our children instead of money! What is the real ratio of fools to human beings in the world?

I've lost track of it...I strive to exclude myself from the mayhem and ask who else will join me and how can we call the rest of humanity to their sences...

Where have the real people gone?

TRULY? WHERE ARE THEY?

The people that mean what they say and stand by it?

RK

Posted by: ConnerVT

Quote:

Originally posted by rk288
90% of divorces in the United States are among Christian families.

This is another example of statistics do not always appear to say what you think.

Let us assume that this 90% figure is accurate. Now let's look at how religious faith is distributed in the US.

The US Census Bureau does not (by law) collect data on religion. They did, however, publish a telephone survey of 50,281 households in the US. (info from page 57 of 58).

207, 980 people
159,506 Christian (all faiths)
7,740 Other organized non-Christian religions
29,481 None (Atheist, Agnostic, Secular, etc.)
11,249 Refused to answer

Looking at the raw data, it would seem that 76.6% of the population is Christian (159506/207980). But if you remove the people who refused to answer (some of them are certain to be Christian) the percentage is now 81%.

Another way someone may manipulate the numbers is to say that over 95% of those who participate in an organized religion are Christian (7740 vs. 159506).

Back to our 90% divorce figure. As the US is predominately Christian, it is not hard to believe that a proportionally large number of people who get divorced are Christian.

Posted by: FlashingEyes

Jill,

On the link to information about Ukraine that I provided it notes that this sort of information ultimately comes from the State Statistics Committee. Using a simple Internet search for Russia State Statistics Committe I find:

http://www.gks.ru/eng/

Posted by: gino

you guys need to remember that many women get married for registration purposes. it has nothing to do with love. it happens all the time. gino

Posted by: RobOhioGuy

Quote:

Originally posted by gino
you guys need to remember that many women get married for registration purposes. it has nothing to do with love. it happens all the time. gino

That phenomenon can be found everywhere. Men and women marry for a variety of reason, one of which is love.