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closed borders?
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Posted by: gino

i was just reading a public opinion poll that took place in the Moscow news. the public was asked if they were willing to give up freedoms for the fight against terror? 60% of the people said that they were willing to trim some of there freedoms including (freedom of travel inside Russia and abroad). due to the changes that have taken place with the elimination of elections, and Putin's power grab. i was wondering if people on the forum thought that closed borders could actually happen? Gino

Posted by: gino

I'm surprised no one has an opinion on this subject? Are you guys aware of all the political changes going on in Russia? don't you guys wonder what's going to happen? perhaps I'm just paranoid? Gino

Posted by: parasionok

Gino,

what Putin is doing is very scary indeed, and believe it is going to be very difficult for anybody with Chechen, Ingush, etc nationality to move around, but I don't think Putin will close the boarders and international travel will be impossible.

I just want to post the artice I read in MN.

Tuesday, October 5, 2004. Page 11.

Rolling Back Democracy

By Pavel Felgenhauer
President Vladimir Putin is rolling back democracy in Russia. Last week, Putin's close aide Vladislav Surkov made clear that regional legislatures that fail to endorse the Kremlin's gubernatorial nominations will be dissolved. He also declared that the president's political opponents constitute a "fifth column" aimed at ensuring Russia's defeat in the war against terror.

The judiciary is also being placed under full Kremlin control. Freedom of the press has been erased by censorship. Many observers describe this process as neo-Stalinism, but the Kremlin, while expanding its control over the economy, continues to pursue market reforms and has no plans for complete nationalization. Putin obviously regrets the collapse of the Soviet Union, but he is also in essence an anti-communist.

Posted by: BradIL

Gino---

A lot of puffing, but how much of Putin's stand is real and how much is posturing?

I'm interested to read posts from those who live in russia who are members of the forum, those who live in the region (Jill & Eryk come to mind), or those in constant contact with anyone who follows politics somewhat closely.

I would broaden the question a little: If Putin follows through with dissolving legislatures, or using armed force to suppress dissent, will a civil war be likely?

How could he possibly manage that along with the fight against the resistance in Chechnya, Dagestan, and North Ossetia?

I see this, perhaps far too hopefully, as Putin stamping his foot a little and essentially saying 'don't become uncooperative' with his anti-terrorism policy.

Thoughts, anecdotes, opinions from you all please.

---Brad///

Posted by: gino

thanks for your response, i have been reading a lot of the Russian press. Moscow times, Moscow news, Pravda, gazeta...etc i suppose I'm just amazed at all the changes taking place. And to me it seems like the average Russian citizen dose not care about there loss of wrights, even the response from my g.f. is like so what "it is normal it is Russia? the government is too corrupt". she states that Putin is doing the right thing. perhaps I'm just looking at it from an Americans perspective? Gino

Posted by: BradIL

Oh Gino, you're not so off to be worried.

Any westerner, especially Americans I suppose, maintain a healthy skepticism in the acts of public authorities. Tyranny seems to find ways to raise its head in the cracks of any government.

For me, the trampling of citizen rights around the world makes me very sensitive to their erosion in the U-S. The Patriot Act (america's big anti-terror tool) poses certain risks to civil liberties.

I would say that closed borders, or a difficult cross, is destined on Russia's border with the Georgian Repubic, and the southern provinces due to the trouble with muslim militants.

Its just I don't think I have a complete picture of the issue. And anything from anyone living in Russia, particularly the south, is of interest whether its accurate or not.

I will say this: Putin is in for a surprise if he thinks centralizing power will avert terrorism. Guerilla warfare is by its nature unorganized, and takes a tremendous coordinated effort in localized areas to suppress. If he alienates friends in a local area by taking power, they won't actively cooperate, and that makes his fight twice as hard.

In the end your closed borders view could be accurate, and I would say certainly in the areas to the south.

Is there an AM in this forum who is engaged to a woman in the Georgian Republic? How difficult is it to procure a fiancee visa for her to get her entry in the U-S? Rumour is that the State Dept. is very skeptical of applications from this area, true???

Posted by: gino

brandl i guess thats how i see it. it's the Russian version of the patriot act. yes I'm sure it would be a bummer to have a woman from the Caucasus region. however, i don't think there will ever be an end to the Chechen war. it's been going on since czar Nicolas invaded around 1758. do you know why they invaded, for oil. oil is the reason why the Chechen's will never have there independents. personally i do not care either way. but the Russians at present time have control of the Caspian sea oil reserve. there pipeline feeds all of western Europe and the black sea. i just don't understand how is Putin going to stop terrorism by stopping free elections, and censoring the already censored press. notice i did not say free. Gino

Posted by: rattlesnake6979

Gino, I read recently that Putin has sacked the editor of one the leading Moscow newpapers - the editor dared to criticise the government in its response to the Beslan Massacre as well as to question the Russian govt in relation to the Chechen terrrorist threat.
I think Putin is trying to control all forms of media so that slowly and surely the public are denied real information regarding the situation in Russia today. I also think that Putin is trying to sloly erode the democratic freedoms which were won in the late 1980's - remember Putin is an ex KGB officer and is no fan of democracy .
I also think Putin is using the recent crisis as an excuse to wrest power from the constitution so that it is harder for anyone to challenge him .
You have only to read about the fate of the YUKOS to see that Putin didnt spare his political opponents .

I think that Putin is carrying out genocide in chechnya and the closing of the border is to effectively deny access to journalists and remove the possibility of escape for suspected terroristsin chechenya . From the history so far in the region , it is clear that the russian army has viewed all chechens as potential terrorists and so the closing of borders is a grim sign of further brutality in the region.

Rattle

Posted by: gino

it makes sense to me Pete. but even after the Chechen's get slaugterd there will never be a free press in Russia. i have even read that Putin opposes the Internet. i imagine its only going to be a mater of time and Internet dating with Russian women will be a thing of the past. Gino

Posted by: parasionok

Well, I am Russian and I in no way support out president. What he is doing in Chechnia is absurd. One of the reasons he became president was military actions in Chechnia. Just before the presidential election (the first one) we had all those explosions in Moscow. Suddenly... The timing was perfect. He said he was going to protect us from those terrorists. Once he got elected, the explosions and terracts stopped... for a while. People in Russia are striving for "iron hand", and very nostalgic about communism era... certain people... my parents and grandparents generation, some of them.

Putin is loved, Putin is adored. Now we have an enimy we can blame everything on... during cold war it was the US, not it is Chechnia.

What is actually done by a mayor of Moscow to protect the city from terrorist? They implemented that residence visa regime. They put thousands of police guys in every metro station... What are those police guys are doing? When I lived close to Kitaj-Gorod metro station ( it is right in the centre), I was stopped almost on a daily basis by metro police... Why? I am slim, 170, slavic gilr. I do not believe I look like a terrorist... While these guys were checking my papers, I don't know how many Chechen or Ingush, or whatever muslim people were passing by possibly carrying explosives. Once they stopeed me and my friend (Frnech guy) and they spent at least 5 minutes to check his pass... I mean he did not look anything like a muslim or a terrorist. We were not even carrying any bags. I could not spot any other police guys around us.... What are the police looking for? People without registration so they can get money from them... Luzhkov is really protecting Moscow people from terrorists by underpaying the police so they have to look for people they can get money from. If they catch someone without registration, for a small fee of 3-4 dollars you can get just go... You can buy or arrange this residence for certain amount of money, no problem.

I think Russian government encourages terrorism, not fighting it. They are not negotiating with Chechen rebels... They just gas Russian people in Nord-Ost... Much of a protection. They let hundreds of innocent children die... what is more important? oil or stability and safety of our kids?

Posted by: parasionok

Gino,

there were roumous that Putin was going to pass a law that every modem in the country has to be registered. Maybe it is possible and he will get control over all ISPs. I don't think it is going to happen though. That would be totally extreme and would economically be not good for Russia... I don't know.

Posted by: gino

hello parasionok, i have read about the visa checks the other week i read that they gathered up 10,000 people and deported some 800. i will be going back to Moscow on the 18th I'm sure it's going to be different than my last visit. i hope to gos they leave the internet alone. but im sure they can put some kind of net nany right on the serever. gino

Posted by: gino

think I'm going to be using taxis on this trip and stay out of the metro. gino

Posted by: Jerico

Quote:

I think that Putin is carrying out genocide in chechnya and the closing of the border is to effectively deny access to journalists and remove the possibility of escape for suspected terroristsin chechenya

Rattle,
Sometimes I think the media should not have access to certain tactics of war.
Especially if the media is very biased like it is in the USA.
Never showing the good things in iraq that American soldiers bring to the region.
Always the bad things like as example : Three children were killed in an attack on a convoy today in Iraq. Of course the media does not tell you the children were carrying AK-47`s and firing at our troops. This is just an example only.

I dont know that much about the history of the Chechens and russians but i do know that the Chechens are blowing up schools, metro stations, theaters ,etc all over Russia it seems.Killing children and innocent people.

I think the Russians have every right to take them out as they see fit.
Where is it written that the world media must know every little detail about what they do towards terrorist.
I dont claim to be an expert on this topic but it is just the way I see it.
Jerry

Posted by: gino

i agree during war censorship can be a good thing. however, the f.s.u. is placing censorship on all aspects of the press. for example, they edited the criticism of Putin during the presidential debates on Russian television. Gino

Posted by: rattlesnake6979

Jericho , I am have no idea what is going on in Russia but closing borders is a sure sign that something is about or wil happen soon
As fas as press freedoms are concerned , not being a russian , I do not know what russians think about a return to the good old days of communism but hearing Para share her views it strikes me that Russia seems to be going backwards in time to a time BEFORE communism - ie Putin wants to be seen not only as leader but also as Czsar of Russia .
Maybe its a russian thing- Russia is huge - many cultures and many problems but the idea that Russia is banning all free speech is chillling .
I dont believe closing a border will prevent journalists from covering the story of chechenya - 3 years ago a journalist was able to join a group of soldiers and winessed , and surreptitiously photographed interogations and shootings being carried out by the Special Forces in the region. So in the end a story will be told one way or another.

Rattle

Posted by: Jerico

Ya rattle ,
I agree with you.
I dont know that much either about Russian politics.
Your right , someone will be there in the media.
I feel that sometimes the press gets carried away with things is all I am saying.
There is always two sides to a story , good or bad. Depends how one looks at it.

Gino,
Ya I would not be surpised a bit if Putin edited the criticism of himself on TV. This is Russia

Posted by: gino

i was thinking this whole power trip Putin is on may just lead to his demise. if he cannot put an end to the Chechen problem. there will be no one else to blame only him. he will have total control of all aspects of the government. so it can only be his fault if his plan fails. Gino

Posted by: Jerico

Quote:

i was thinking this whole power trip Putin is on may just lead to his demise. if he cannot put an end to the Chechen problem. there will be no one else to blame only him. he will have total control of all aspects of the government. so it can only be his fault if his plan fails. Gino

Seems like a reasonable conclusion to me.
Jerry

Posted by: gino

conspiracy theory: suppose Putin concocted the whole belsan tragedy. if you think about it. based on what he was done in reaction to terrorism. he could not have planed a better situation to gain power. Gino

Posted by: Jill

I know we shouldn't joke about such things, but I found this recently and decided to share. As you will recall, in the aftermath of Beslan, Putin said that he would do away with gubernatorial elections and appoint regional leaders himself as an additional security measure....

Quote:

Separatist Supports Putin Plan
VLADIKAVKAZ (element) -- Nur-Pashi Kulayev, the lone surviving Chechen hostage-taker currently being held in custody, confessed to Russian prosecutors yesterday that it was "thanks to gubernatorial elections" that he and his fellow captors were able to seize and kill so many hostages in Beslan.

Now, with President Vladimir Putin's new plan to end regional elections and replace them with governors nominated by the Kremlin, the Chechen rebel believes that the separatist movement is doomed.

"Replacing gubernatorial elections with governors nominated by the President will make it impossible for international terrorists to operate on Russian soil," a visibly shaken Kulayav told prosecutors in a videotaped confession aired on state television.

Kulayev joins several governors, including Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and Vyacheslav Y. Pozgalev of Vologda, all of whom have given videotaped confessions to Russian prosecutors in support of Putin's proposal to scrap gubernatorial elections.

Posted by: Jutman

66% who want give freedom to travel !!
- Most likely the 66% who don't have the money to travel anyway.

Will it end terrorism. Rubbish, if a terrorist wants to enter Russia, I am sure it can be done.

Posted by: wavetossed

For the past 35 years I have heard, time and time again, people making comments like the ones in this thread. Only they were directed against various US presidents and US government agencies and US laws and initiatives.

None of the worst fears that I heard over those many years were ever realized. Mostly because those fears were based on complete misunderstanding of what was really happening in the USA. I think that the same thing is happening here and most people haven't got a clue what is really happening in Russia. And most of the worst fears about Russia's future will never even come close to being realized.

First of all, people forget that the people governing the Soviet Union today are mostly the same people who were governing the Soviet Union 30 years ago. Political and economic structures shifted and changed a bit, but the same people live in the Soviet Union today. And the same people run the show. And a lot of them are not in positions like General Secretary of the Communist Party or President of the Russian Federation. The aparatchiki and nomenklatura didn't evaporate when the formal structures of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union evaporated. They are still there in the military industrial complex. And they still pull the strings. Political leaders in the USA and in Russia are still subject to the same pressures from the hidden oligarchy and don't have nearly as much real power as they pretend to have in public.

So I'm not worried about Putin's actions. Many of them aren't his actions at all. Some of them are actions of other people (firing the Izvestia journalist) and some of them are actions decided on by groups of people for which Putin is the public spokesman. He speaks for at least 3 different groups which do not fully overlap. His government, his political party, and the best-connected members of the oligarchy. By this last I mean the subset of the oligarchs who are plugged into the political power structure, not just the economic power structure. For instance Berezovski is an oligarch who does well economically but is an outsider politically.

Russia is just doing what Russia has always done. It is keeping its house in order using the same set of political/economic levers it has always used. It is not kowtowing to any foreign power or international organization. It is moving ahead in its own way. However, the leadership in Russia are not stupid. They are chess players, not football players, so their strategy may seem inscrutable to Americans. They are fully aware of public opinion within Russia, just as the Communist Party of the Soviet Union was always careful to keep an ear to the ground. They know that repression only works as a tool when it is applied with surgical precision for short periods of time. So don't expect a return to Czarist autocracy or Stalinist pogroms.

But do expect Russia to evolve a political/economic structure that borrows the best aspects of communism and capitalism. Most Amercicans haven't got a clue what communism really is. They focused on the fascist aspects of the dictatorship of the proletariat, i.e. the Communist Party of the Soviet Union's entrenched position within society. But they ignored the underlying socialist/communist structures which many other countries in the world implemented with varying degrees of success. Countries like Canada, UK, Germany and so on.

Let's face it, the U.S. system isn't working. It leads to systemic poverty, high levels of drug use, periodic recessions and job loss, etc. You should be cheering Russia along in the hopes that they manage to find better ways to do things than the USA. Both Russia and the USA have been copying each other for generations. Why are you surprised that Putin looked at the Patriot Act and Homeland Security, saw that it was good, and then said, but in Russia, we can do better?

Posted by: rattlesnake6979

Wave the situation in chechenya has absolutely nothing to do with al queda and if anything Chechenya is an internal problem which Putin is dealing with by adopting a military solution. The 9/11 was caused by al queda - no question about that .
What I am saying is that Putin has blamed " terrorists " but is using this blame to justify his actions in the chechen region - the only theories I have for his behaviour is 1) Putin wants more power 2) Putin wants a new constitution or 3) Putin wants to remove democratic elections in all parts of russia - this cannot be good for russia in the long run.

rattle

Posted by: wavetossed

Uhhh, where did I say anything about Al Qaeda?

Rattlesnake, you need to learn a thing or two about terrorists and Russia and Checnya. May I suggest that you go to your favourite search engine and try searching for the two keywords Beslan and Nordost. That should explain everything.

Cheers!

Posted by: Jill

Quote:

Russia is just doing what Russia has always done. It is keeping its house in order using the same set of political/economic levers it has always used.

You know, I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but I have yet to hear a rational explanation for the bombs planted in Ryazan. It happened just after the Moscow apartment building bombings (allegedly by Chechens) yet the explosives planted in the Ryazan apartment building were planted by the FSB. This has been proven (at least as far as I understand). So what does that mean? How can I believe anything the Russian government says anymore? If the explosives in Ryazan hadn't been reported by a vigilant inhabitant of the building, would hundreds of people have died there, too? Would Chechen terrorists have been blamed? I hope not, but I honestly don't know at this point

No doubt many of the atrocities have been caused by terrorists (such as Nord Ost, Beslan). But what kind of game is the Russian government playing?

Posted by: Pawel_PL.USA

I'll let myself once again say that I've got my fingers crossed for Russia in Chechnya. Being Europe's defence wall against the Orient is not an easy job.