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So who has noticed inflation biting?

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Posted by: deccie

As I mentioned in another thread I just got back from another week in St Petersburg and just wanted mention how much I had noticed prices have increased since my first trip now almost exactly two years ago.

The metro, mashrutkas and buses all have increased and while the price does not in the least affect me it definitely does affect the locals, especially the pensioners. Food is definitely more expensive too. Particularly dairy and imported fruit.

Buses alone have increased in price 30% in two years. Yes, it is still dirt cheap but not if your a pensioner..

What have you all seen in your recent travels and talking with your ladies?



Posted by: Chrismc

Me too

I left Chernivsti on January 8th THIS year and I went back again 19th March for 3 weeks, food prices had gone up in 10 weeks by up to 300%, clothing has gone up and one of our favourite restuarants have put their prices up by double.

I took a bus on my own one day and the fares had gone up 50% since January too.

I was also shown some new houses on the city limits and can't believe what people are paying for them now. A lot of the new money is buying up old housing, knocking it down and putting up a mansion in its place, its just silly money.

Some things are still very cheap, for example I bought a bottle of Gorilka and a box of chocolates one day for £3.50 (35 Grivnah) $7 USD which is a steal compared to home.

But on the whole, prices are rising fast.

Chris



Posted by: Chrismc

So how does the exchange rate fit into all this, well being from the UK the exchange rate has not changed that much for 12 months or more, so we get less for our money as prices over there rise, but while I was there I saw the USD had dropped overnight against the Grivna by almost 50 cents, so the USD is doing badly there too.



Posted by: Chrismc

I transfered yesterday over £1000.00 ($2,000) into my wifes account in Chernivsti, she has an account in Sterling and / or Grivna, however, her own bank will only offer an exchange rate of 9.20 grivnah to the pound, another bank down the road that she does not have an account with will offer her 9.90 grivnah to the pound, so an extra 700 grivnah or £70.00 ($140.00) for just walking down the street.

The only problem is, even though I transferred the money in Sterling and she wants to withdraw in Sterling, her own bank does not have any Sterling at all so they are trying to get her some from another city for her by Tuesday, so she can exchange it at Bank No 2 because she needs it to take to Kiev with her Tuesday evening.



Posted by: Seaview

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrismc
The only problem is, even though I transferred the money in Sterling and she wants to withdraw in Sterling, her own bank does not have any Sterling at all so they are trying to get her some from another city for her by Tuesday, so she can exchange it at Bank No 2 because she needs it to take to Kiev with her Tuesday evening.


Well... Pounds are not popular in FSU. When I need them I call a bank to order them and they deliver a desirable sum in a week or so.

Of course, there is a chance to call into a bank and buy 50-150 GBP but if you need more, it's better to order them in advance.



Posted by: GentleGiant

Never mind the FSU, what about inflation here??

The government can lie all they like about the official figures, but petrol has gone up by 30% in 12 months, electricity and gas by 50%!!!!



Posted by: Spakoyna

Yeah...Inflation is pretty much WW now. I shutter to thing of what the prices will be like when my wife and I go for a visit next year. Last time we were in Russia the exchange rate was close to 29R/$. Now the official exchange rate is under 24R/$. Add that to inflation and I'm sure we are in for major sticker shock. Her mom complains quite a bit about how the prices of essentials such as food, etc. have gone up. Sure wish we could convince her to come here for a visit! My wife's been working on her for a year! Her feet are firmly planted on Tera Russia!

Quote:
Originally Posted by GentleGiant
Never mind the FSU, what about inflation here??

The government can lie all they like about the official figures, but petrol has gone up by 30% in 12 months, electricity and gas by 50%!!!!




Posted by: deccie

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrismc
So how does the exchange rate fit into all this, well being from the UK the exchange rate has not changed that much for 12 months or more, so we get less for our money as prices over there rise, but while I was there I saw the USD had dropped overnight against the Grivna by almost 50 cents, so the USD is doing badly there too.


A mate of mine just sold his apartment in Russia as he cannot see a future living there and feels outsiders are being made less welcome over time.
He took the funds in rubles as he sees the USD continuing to drop.

Strangely enough I'm considering the reverse right now. Buying an apartment there and working overseas 50/50. I've met another Australian on the project here who does that and lives with his Russian wife in Krasnodar. He has a tax free income of over $100,000 a year doing that.



Posted by: deccie

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spakoyna
Yeah...Inflation is pretty much WW now. I shutter to thing of what the prices will be like when my wife and I go for a visit next year. Last time we were in Russia the exchange rate was close to 29R/$. Now the official exchange rate is under 24R/$. Add that to inflation and I'm sure we are in for major sticker shock. Her mom complains quite a bit about how the prices of essentials such as food, etc. have gone up. Sure wish we could convince her to come here for a visit! My wife's been working on her for a year! Her feet are firmly planted on Tera Russia!


I don't think we are in a normal inflationary cycle. I think we are pretty close to a stagflation situation which is actually very difficult for central banks to fight.

I was listening to some economists on the internet radio the other day warning that commodities was going to be the next "bubble" market. It's like the oil price. The underlying "demand" based price is more like $70-80 USD a barrel. All that money that has come out of the stock markets and real estate markets has found a new home in commodities and forced up prices artificially as a result.



Posted by: deccie

Quote:
Originally Posted by GentleGiant
Never mind the FSU, what about inflation here??

The government can lie all they like about the official figures, but petrol has gone up by 30% in 12 months, electricity and gas by 50%!!!!


The UK is in a pretty funny situation these days. Manufacturing ,mining and heavy industry is largely dead. It's pretty much a service based economy these days. I tend to think such economies are more fragile to inflationary and then recession issues...



Posted by: Spakoyna

You are absolutely correct here. Investors are driving up the prices of all comodities. The irony of the oil thing is we are padding the accounts of the so called terrorist regions...Middle East,Venezuela,Nigeria,etc. I am hoping the US will finally take that major step to get away from foriegn oil. Although I can afford the gas prices I am trying to use as little as possible. I feel if everyone does the same(which it seems many are doing) the long term effect of this run up will cost them dearly with loss of futures sales. The good thing is it will do wonders for the environment if the end result is to finally break free from fossil fuels!

Quote:
Originally Posted by deccie
I don't think we are in a normal inflationary cycle. I think we are pretty close to a stagflation situation which is actually very difficult for central banks to fight.

I was listening to some economists on the internet radio the other day warning that commodities was going to be the next "bubble" market. It's like the oil price. The underlying "demand" based price is more like $70-80 USD a barrel. All that money that has come out of the stock markets and real estate markets has found a new home in commodities and forced up prices artificially as a result.




Posted by: Chrismc

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seaview
Well... Pounds are not popular in FSU. When I need them I call a bank to order them and they deliver a desirable sum in a week or so.

Of course, there is a chance to call into a bank and buy 50-150 GBP but if you need more, it's better to order them in advance.

Yes she needs a lot more and has now been told they will have enough Sterling by Monday next week



Posted by: Stirlitz

Food prices are ~1.5 times that of 2006 here. Up to double. The rest of the prices follows this pattern.



Posted by: OzGuyLooking

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spakoyna
You are absolutely correct here. Investors are driving up the prices of all comodities. The irony of the oil thing is we are padding the accounts of the so called terrorist regions...Middle East,Venezuela,Nigeria,etc. I am hoping the US will finally take that major step to get away from foriegn oil. Although I can afford the gas prices I am trying to use as little as possible. I feel if everyone does the same(which it seems many are doing) the long term effect of this run up will cost them dearly with loss of futures sales. The good thing is it will do wonders for the environment if the end result is to finally break free from fossil fuels!

Wouldn't it be great if this happened, but unfortunately I don't think it will in my lifetime. The problem here isn't just the regular person on the street buying petrol but industry buying diesel and other forms of energy production. Break the manufacturers and transports reliance on diesel and you may get a change come through environmentally. Break energy industries reliance on products such as coal, gas and nuclear and you might see a change coming.

Concerning global inflation another aspect is people moving to the Euro. I checked the exchange rate yesterday and the Euro to Aussie is about 1-0.56 and the Euro to US is about 1-0.65. Items that used to be charged in US currency are now being charged in Euro's, if the Euro continues to climb in value against the US$ then prices will go up relatively for those who are traditionally linked to the US$. The more countries that move towards the Euro means more things will be charged in Euro's in the primary market pushing up the value of the Euro against other currencies such as the US$ and the Japanese Yen (both of which the AU$ is nearly back to parity with). It is the same situation that occurred in the mid to late 80s when the Yen was the currency people moved to and most countries imported products from Japan. We had better hope that the Europeans don't corner the manufacturing markets as well.



Posted by: Spakoyna

Fingers crossed...there is actually some talk going on on the industrial level. I just read an interesting article this morning about a small town in Wyoming that has Ozone levels competing with La and a few others. I believe the population is something around 75! The problem is the equipment they are using for the natural gas wells. They are doing all sorts of creative things to preempt the government from coming down on them.

Yeap,Yeap, and Yeap to the rest!

Quote:
Originally Posted by OzGuyLooking
Wouldn't it be great if this happened, but unfortunately I don't think it will in my lifetime. The problem here isn't just the regular person on the street buying petrol but industry buying diesel and other forms of energy production. Break the manufacturers and transports reliance on diesel and you may get a change come through environmentally. Break energy industries reliance on products such as coal, gas and nuclear and you might see a change coming.

Concerning global inflation another aspect is people moving to the Euro. I checked the exchange rate yesterday and the Euro to Aussie is about 1-0.56 and the Euro to US is about 1-0.65. Items that used to be charged in US currency are now being charged in Euro's, if the Euro continues to climb in value against the US$ then prices will go up relatively for those who are traditionally linked to the US$. The more countries that move towards the Euro means more things will be charged in Euro's in the primary market pushing up the value of the Euro against other currencies such as the US$ and the Japanese Yen (both of which the AU$ is nearly back to parity with). It is the same situation that occurred in the mid to late 80s when the Yen was the currency people moved to and most countries imported products from Japan. We had better hope that the Europeans don't corner the manufacturing markets as well.




Posted by: OzGuyLooking

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spakoyna
Fingers crossed...there is actually some talk going on on the industrial level. I just read an interesting article this morning about a small town in Wyoming that has Ozone levels competing with La and a few others. I believe the population is something around 75! The problem is the equipment they are using for the natural gas wells. They are doing all sorts of creative things to preempt the government from coming down on them.
Spak, until they stop talking and actually doing nothing will change. They have been talking since the early 70s, I remember doing an assignment at school in 1975 on it. The time for talking is over, the time for preventative action is nearly gone, the time for putting up with the damage we have caused is rapidly hurtling towards us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spakoyna
Yeap,Yeap, and Yeap to the rest!
Lol.

Sorry for taking it off the inflationary track and onto the environment but they are linked anyway.



Posted by: Spakoyna

Quote:
Originally Posted by OzGuyLooking
Spak, until they stop talking and actually doing nothing will change. They have been talking since the early 70s, I remember doing an assignment at school in 1975 on it. The time for talking is over, the time for preventative action is nearly gone, the time for putting up with the damage we have caused is rapidly hurtling towards us.


Believe it or not there does seem to be more drive for change. Time will tell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OzGuyLooking
Lol.

Sorry for taking it off the inflationary track and onto the environment but they are linked anyway.






Posted by: Raspberry

It was hard to find any banks/ATMs in Ukraine this time that gave more than 5.0 UAH to the dollar. On previous trips, I was getting 5.2.

I was able to get some at 5.05 and 4.92.........but not the majority have it near these rates.



Posted by: AkMike

I've seen alot of increases here in Ukraine during the last 4 years. Bus rides used to be .3 Hyrivna and now it's up to 1.5. Foods gone up alot also. This might not seem like alot to us with the exchange rate but imagine if you're a local trying to survive and a simple bus ride rate goes up 5 TIMES.



Posted by: blucatz

Mike, fuel here is up to $4.27 a gallon, you might be in for a big surprise when you get home and get ready to fire up those trucks of yours for the summer work season. I also think gas will hit $4 a gallon by the time I get back from Russia, its at $3.75 now.



Posted by: Chillidog

exchange rate USD-Russian Ruble

June 2006-----$1 US (received) 26.7089 Rubles

July 2007------$1 US (received) 24.30 Rubles

Trading today May 10th 2008

$1 US---- 23.7682 Rubles
$1 GBP--- 46.3235 Rubles
$1 EURO-- 36.777 Rubles


for you Aussie's sorry, site I was on was stating no data available



Posted by: Sparky114

Quote:
Originally Posted by blucatz
Mike, fuel here is up to $4.27 a gallon, you might be in for a big surprise when you get home and get ready to fire up those trucks of yours for the summer work season. I also think gas will hit $4 a gallon by the time I get back from Russia, its at $3.75 now.



Hi Blu

You think yours is expensive over there try nearly $10 a gallon here in the uk for fuel

Mark



Posted by: blucatz

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky114
Hi Blu

You think yours is expensive over there try nearly $10 a gallon here in the uk for fuel

Mark

I know you guys pay more over there Sparky, but on the same note, you make more money over there for the same job as over here. Your truck drivers are paid differently than we are and make more $$ per year. Plus, most of the cost of your fuel is in the form of stupid taxes. We just have to admit that it is OPEC that is really running this planet and they stick it to us every chance they get.


2 Days to my in



Posted by: Sparky114

Quote:
Originally Posted by blucatz
I know you guys pay more over there Sparky, but on the same note, you make more money over there for the same job as over here. Your truck drivers are paid differently than we are and make more $$ per year. Plus, most of the cost of your fuel is in the form of stupid taxes. We just have to admit that it is OPEC that is really running this planet and they stick it to us every chance they get.


2 Days to my in


Totaly agree with you there Blu, we may earn more $$ here than u lot but with all the backdoor taxation here I am sure we probably end up the same !!!

I see only 2 days and your back to Russia Good luck in your quest Just got back 10 days ago from the south of Russia myself, hope you have a great time, I know I did came back an engaged man and could not be happier with my world now.

ps. Is there a link here to your story? still trying to get enough time to post mine here!!!!

Mark



Posted by: GentleGiant

Dont forget that diesel is already well over $10 a gallon, and even the cheapest Supermarket stations are asking $9.73 for petrol.
The cost of filling my tank has gone from about $100 to $170 in the last 2 years.

XE.com is my exchange rate calculator of choice and Aussie dollars are shown, as is every other currency I can think of.



Posted by: blucatz

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sparky114
ps. Is there a link here to your story? still trying to get enough time to post mine here!!!!

Mark

Im not going back to Russia Sparky, this will be my first time there, and its only a small detour to Egypt where I will spend the bulk of my time with my Lady. I started the story here http://russianmeetingplace.com/foru...ead.php?t=18381 and I will try to post a little bit while I'm on the trip. Sounds good that you came back engaged, means that everything is going good for you. I can guarantee that I will not be engaged when I return this trip, I might be severly in Love , but not engaged.....LOL



Posted by: OzGuyLooking

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chillidog
for you Aussie's sorry, site I was on was stating no data available
We are nearly at parity with you so it wouldn't be to far off what you have up anyway.



Posted by: redhawk

hey all, havent been on here in a while,on the russian inflation issue, in moscow, Lena said the other day about how fresh food and other items have become increasingly expensive in the past few months. she told me today about an old schoolmate (who lives in england) she spoke with today that told her he pays 10,000.00 a month for his and his wife and childrens EXPENSES! house ect. is this possible? by the way,her interview is may 20th,were hoping(and praying please god)for arrival on june the 9th.

inflation is terrible. gas prices are killing everyone,(especially my trucker friends) time to do some nutcutting,all of our countries need to ban together to whip opecs greedy arses! if we dont, i see a toyota prius in my near future- koshmar!
why is it,that gas in kuwait is .90c a gallon,but where the british and americans buy gas there for the military vehicles that defend their black gold,(in the middle east) WE PAY 2.00 a gallon! and back home, in the us and england, its out of sight!- shouldve held saddam and his boys captive, released when prices went up. put oil execs in jail,including the big giant talking head.



Posted by: redhawk

where are my manners? good luck on your trip bluecatz! wont be engaged eh? well see.........



Posted by: Raspberry

Petrol comes up to about $4.10 USD per gallon in Ukraine(allowing for conversion liters-to-gallons, UAH-to-USD).....but keep in mind that regular is 76 octane, which is a lot less than the US, where the octane is 87. Mid-grade and premium are 92 and 95 respectively----essentially same as the USA



Posted by: alfie

Redhawk

The average wage in England is about £2500 GBP per month. My monthly bills (i live on my own) including utility bills, fuel, mortgage & food comes to about £600 GBP per month. If your friend is a doctor or something then i can believe they are earning £10,000 a month, but they must be living in a mansion to be paying that amount out a month.



Posted by: deccie

Quote:
Originally Posted by alfie
Redhawk

The average wage in England is about £2500 GBP per month. My monthly bills (i live on my own) including utility bills, fuel, mortgage & food comes to about £600 GBP per month. If your friend is a doctor or something then i can believe they are earning £10,000 a month, but they must be living in a mansion to be paying that amount out a month.


or paying for an ex wife and kids.



Posted by: tonton

Having not read the entire thread, I will comment about Deccie's initial question:

My wife and I were in Tomsk last month, and yes, the prices have sky-rocketed. Fresh fruit and veggies are on par (and some cases more) than we pay in Melbourne, and she can't understand how her parents survive on their pension. Meat is about the same as here, buses have remained the same.
Other commodities are still cheap compared to here (some clothing, footwear) but have risen noticeably since last year when we were there.

The upside personally is the weak USD - I came back home through UK, Toronto and NYC for work - buying cheap winter (winter in OZ now) clothing for my daughters and us in Macy's and other outlet's saved me a packet!!



Posted by: AkMike

Fuel is 4.40 USD here I see when we got home this am. It went up .35 while we were in Ukraine and I doubt it'll slow down any thime soon.



Posted by: deccie

Just a couple of posts in the English/Russian press that illustrate what is going on over there...

http://www.sptimes.ru/index.php?act...&story_id=25957

http://www.sptimes.ru/index.php?act...&story_id=25962



Posted by: OzGuyLooking

Well if its any consolation to anyone we have our new federal budget handed down. So far from what I am seeing there is nothing at all in it for people who don't fit into the "working familes" slot. Unfortunately for many people life is just going to get alot harder. If you aren't either in a working family or are not a single woman with kids your up the creek without a paddle.

It doesn't matter who is in power it wouldn't have been any different for many people as up to 1/2 the population falls outside of the Governments preferred demographic at any one time.



Posted by: deccie

I think the situation you decribe was inevitable Oz as the econmists did not want to see any inflationary spending. Naturally in that scenario governments will tend to target spending to particular target groups.

I don't think anyone can complain about things like the baby bonus being confined to people earning less than 150k a year though.

One thing I noticed from the budget... MY definition of a surplus is an excess of earnings over spending. however, it seems our "surplus" is itself going to be spent - even if it is on infrastructure projects.

Does it not just then become spent funds like any other government programme?



Posted by: OzGuyLooking

I have no problem at all with restricting the baby bonus, not do I have a problem with helping out working class people. I think people like pensioners need a hand more than they are getting though. I am talking from the POV of someone who's entire family apart from his sister and himself is on the pension. I see inflation rising and the government is not keeping up with it on there payments and other things. That is where my disappointment is.



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